Long-term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36

The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10E-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid,which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary.Comment: Reviewed figures and some text change

The Impact Trajectory of Asteroid 2008 TC3

Asteroid 2008 TC3 was the rst asteroid ever discovered before reaching Earth. By using the almost 900 astrometric observations acquired prior to impact we estimate the trajectory of 2008 TC3 and the ground-track of the impact location as a function of altitude. For a reference altitude of 100 km the impact location 3- formal uncertainty is a 1.4 km 0.15 km ellipse with a semimajor axis azimuth of 105. We analyze the contribution of modeling errors and nd that the second-order zonal harmonics of the Earth gravity eld moves the ground-track by more than 1 km and the location along the ground-track by more than 2 km. Non-zonal and higher order harmonics only change the impact prediction by less than 20 m. The contribution of the atmospheric drag to the trajectory of 2008 TC3 is at the numerical integration error level, a few meters, down to an altitude of 50 km. Integrating forward to lower altitudes and ignoring the break-up of 2008 TC3, the atmospheric drag causes an along-track error that can be as large as a few kilometers at sea level. The locations of the recovered meteorites is consistent with the computed ground-track

Constraints on the perturbed mutual motion in Didymos due to impact-induced deformation of its primary after the DART impact

Binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos is the target of the proposed NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), part of the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission concept. In this mission, the DART spacecraft is planned to impact the secondary body of Didymos, perturbing mutual dynamics of the system. The primary body is currently rotating at a spin period close to the spin barrier of asteroids, and materials ejected from the secondary due to the DART impact are likely to reach the primary. These conditions may cause the primary to reshape, due to landslides, or internal deformation, changing the permanent gravity field. Here, we propose that if shape deformation of the primary occurs, the mutual orbit of the system would be perturbed due to a change in the gravity field. We use a numerical simulation technique based on the full two-body problem to investigate the shape effect on the mutual dynamics in Didymos after the DART impact. The results show that under constant volume, shape deformation induces strong perturbation in the mutual motion. We find that the deformation process always causes the orbital period of the system to become shorter. If surface layers with a thickness greater than ~0.4 m on the poles of the primary move down to the equatorial region due to the DART impact, a change in the orbital period of the system and in the spin period of the primary will be detected by ground-based measurement.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Serendipitous Geodesy from Bennu's Short-Lived Moonlets

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx; or OREx) spacecraft arrived at its target, near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu, on December 3, 2018. The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has since collected a wealth of scientific information in order to select a suitable site for sampling. Shortly after insertion into orbit on December 31, 2018, particles were identified in starfield images taken by the navigation camera (NavCam 1). Several groups within the OSlRlS-REx team analyzed the particle data in an effort to better understand this newfound activity of Bennu and to investigate the potential sensitivity of the particles to Bennu's geophysical parameters. A number of particles were identified through automatic and manual methods in multiple images, which could be turned into short sequences of optical tracking observations. Here, we discuss the precision orbit determination (OD) effort focused on these particles at NASA GSFC, which involved members of the Independent Navigation Team (INT) in particular. The particle data are combined with other OSIRIS-REx tracking data (radiometric from OSN and optical landmark data) using the NASA GSFC GEODYN orbit determination and geodetic parameter estimation software. We present the results of our study, particularly those pertaining to the gravity field of Bennu. We describe the force modeling improvements made to GEODYN specifically for this work, e.g., with a raytracing-based modeling of solar radiation pressure. The short-lived, low-flying moonlets enable us to determine a gravity field model up to a relatively high degree and order: at least degree 6 without constraints, and up to degree 10 when applying Kaula-like regularization. We can backward- and forward-integrate the trajectory of these particles to the ejection and landing sites on Bennu. We assess the recovered field by its impact on the OSIRIS-REx trajectory reconstruction and prediction quality in the various mission phases (e.g., Orbital A, Detailed Survey, and Orbital B)